The Tories face a disaster called Europe
There will always be a right of centre party – of course – but every now and then the Tory Party faces a disaster, a cataclysmic event from which it takes them 10 or 20 years to recover. This happens when long-cherished immovable beliefs and policies come into conflict with financial, political or economic reality.
The examples that come to mind are the 1846 Repeal of the Corn Laws and the 1902 struggle over Imperial tariffs – both in effect about trade policy and import tariffs. In 1846 the interests of the English aristocracy and their farming businesses were beginning to come into conflict with those of the new industrial and commercial elite of Victorian Britain. The catalyst for the 1846 Repeal of the Corn Laws was the Irish Famine. Five years of one of the worst famines in recorded history (the Irish population fell from over 8 million to 6.5 million, which is what it still is to this day) forced Sir Robert Peel to repeal the protectionist Corn Laws.
The party split and it was not until one of the rebels opposed to Peel, Benjamin Disraeli, managed to make the Tories relevant to the new might of British Imperialism with his “one nation” Toryism that they again achieved a parliamentary victory. Disraeli’s win in 1874 was their first since 1841.
Half a century later in the early 1900s the Tory party once again tore itself apart over trade protectionism. This time it was fear of the new growing industrial might of Germany and the USA, which posed the political problem. Joseph Chamberlain resigned from the Government in 1903 to lead a campaign for Imperial Preference levies in opposition to the free trade policies pursued by Prime Minister, Balfour. Chamberlain thought that putting a tariff round the Empire would protect British trade, particularly in India, Canada and Australia, from these aggressive, rising competitors. Balfour wished to maintain the free trade essentially created by the 1846 Repeal Act.
The dispute over free trade or protectionism resulted in big victories for the Liberal Party in the 1906 and 1911 elections. Once again it was 20 years later in the totally different post-WW1 1920s before the Tory Party resumed its “normal” role as the party of Government.
And now in 2014-17 I think we face a similar prospect of Tory division and defeat over trade policies, where once again cherished Tory party notions come into conflict with the political realities. This time the Tory notion is the nostalgia for the UK as a great power and our collective failure even today to come to terms with the truth – that we are an important European nation, dependent upon our relationship with the rest of the continent. The external reality, which is posing the issue so starkly, is the EU.
David Cameron, with his tactics over the Juncker/European Commissioner vote, has made himself uniquely unpopular in Europe and put himself into a truly awful negotiating position for the post-Election “reform” of the EU. As a result it is almost inconceivable that he could win terms from European politicians, which would be remotely acceptable to a large number of Tory MPs or with anyone with UKIP tendencies.
Cameron, therefore, now faces a major dilemma over the 2017 Referendum vote. It’s almost inconceivable that Britain’s industrial and commercial elite would accept or fund a Government and party, which wanted to opt out of the EU, but it also beggars belief that the current Tory party would support a pro-EU campaign. Where would that leave Cameron – dependent upon Labour votes?
There is, of course, one way out for Cameron and that would be to lose the May, 2015, General Election. But assuming that is not his plan then his leadership seems to be leading the Tory Party inexorably into a cul-de-sac and another split over trade policy, with the right wing eventually merging with UKIP and becoming a Tory Party devoid of any real electoral prospects for a dozen years or more. Meanwhile do the pro-EU Tories hitch themselves to the by-then surely divided Liberal/Democratic party? It is an intriguing prospect and holds out great prospects for Labour.
Tony Belton
Tony Belton 